Mid Year Review
Last year ended with the worse credit/liquidity crisis and stock market crash since the Great Depression. The grim reality of our economy’s dire straits set in when the bubble burst and economy began to deleverage and unravel. We learned new terms and revisited old ones: collateralized debt obligations, credit default Swaps, tranches, foreclosure, unemployment. The winds of change were blowing since late 2007 but they turned into a fire storm by the end the end of 2008.
How many years we will be feeling the effects of the consumer bubble bursting nobody is sure, but it isn’t going to be over by the end of this year. Some are predicting inflation to follow while others say that if the stimulus package re-inflates the economy, it is expected to flatten out again for an extended period of time with low GDP growth.
It is hard to know with certainty who to believe any more but more importantly it is even more difficult to plan and prepare for contingencies and do adequate career management. My approach is to hope for the best but prepare for the absolute worse. Be ready to hang on as if you had to tough it out for 5+ years while you look for your dream job.
Silicon Valley vs. the US Economy
The difference between Silicon Valley and the rest of the US economy, aside from a state budget run amok, is that the tech bubble bursting and the massive blood-letting of companies and jobs between 2000-2003 seems to have mitigated the damage this time around. It simply is not as bad as other regions. Companies are hiring and laying off people. Green jobs are growing here as is bio-tech/bio-pharma. I have heard that the salaries of local MBA grads of our top schools are higher this year than last. On the other hand, people are more precarious than during the tech bust as there is less to nothing to fall back on. Many have seen their 401k plans lose 40% or more in value and the home equity was already used up in refinancing to get through the last crash.
A Consultant and Consumer Recession
Since many of the largest Bay Area companies already consolidated and downsized and never ramped back up fully from the last recession but rather sent jobs off shore instead, the ranks of consultants have swelled in the past 8 years. Granted young and fresh on the scene companies such as Google hired like crazy for the past few years and the real estate, mortgage brokerages, title companies and banks had a heyday. The likes of Chevron, Cost Plus, Hewlett Packard, the Gap, Intel, and Apple didn’t go on hiring binges. In fact, some continued to downsize.
Many consultants have been hit hard with increased competition from the laid off joining their ranks and companies keeping projects in-house instead of outsourcing. Furthermore, retailers such as Mervyns, Circuit City and Linens & Things have crashed and burned removing many low level sales jobs. So it is the best of times and the worst of times. Facebook is hiring but not likely anyone from Mervyns.
What’s Next?
Now that’s the $64 question and if the dollar devalues, it will be the $100 question. Advice I have been giving my clients is to be prepared to last it out for however long it takes. With increasing fierce competition (think about how many life and career coaches you know) on a global scale, you must commit your resolve and effort to “career differentiation”. Yes, I know that’s a mouthful, but personal branding is so overworked. And do you really know how to brand yourself? Or what you would look like if you were?
Being able to answer to “what makes you different?” is really how you can articulate your unique value proposition to the world. And knowing what makes you different takes reflection, effort and the long view. You have to look forward down the road to see where you are headed because recognizing your distinct path in part makes you different. You have heard the hackneyed saying that we are all on different paths. Well it is true.
Social Media Save Us
It’s really too late for me. I have been completely enchanted with anything Social Media since Linkedin launched in 2003. I just hope Twitter et al figure out how to make money and be viable businesses while they change the world. It makes me want to rewrite John Lennon’s song, “Imagine”. Imagine immediately accessible knowledge about anyone; imagine no more resumes; imagine interviewing for a job in 140 characters or less; imagine a world so small that everyone is connected; just imagine then look because it is already here.
The tools are there: social sites, blogs, video, podcasts, and wikis. To not understand them, and make the most of them is to your detriment as they give you the edge to show the world how, why and in what way you are different as visibly as possible. And that in itself can determine your success.
So, spruce up your Linkedin profile, get on Facebook, Twitter and then explore the more esoteric vertical social sites to find more ways to be connected and visible to everyone.
Career Security
Yes, career security does exist in these tough times. It is in the power of the collective and the collaborative. I am not referring to Socialism. It stands to reason that if consultants are competing for every project then they are better off collaborating on all projects. If we are all striving to be different then helping everyone be their personal best will only help you stand out too. If you can take the long view and look down the road, you can change the future.



